Middle East Tensions: Higher Energy Costs, Security Risks — What Could It Mean for Italy?

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by InTrieste

Italy is grappling with the repercussions of a rapidly escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, as the government in Rome moves to protect its citizens abroad while navigating diplomatic and domestic pressures at home.

Evacuations from the United Arab Emirates

Italian authorities have begun repatriating citizens from the United Arab Emirates following the outbreak of hostilities. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told the Senate that Rome is coordinating the return of hundreds of nationals from the Gulf region.

A first group of 98 Italians departed the U.A.E. for Oman on Sunday before traveling on to Rome. A second group of about 200 Italian students stranded in Dubai was expected to board a flight to Milan on Tuesday.

The Foreign Ministry estimates that roughly 30,000 Italian citizens live and work in the Emirates, underscoring the scale of the potential consular challenge should regional security deteriorate further.

Defence Requests from Gulf States

The crisis has also drawn Italy into a broader security discussion. Defence Minister Guido Crosetto told lawmakers that several Gulf countries have expressed concern over missile and drone attacks in the region and have sought to strengthen their air-defence capabilities.

According to Mr. Crosetto, governments in the area have indicated an urgent need for air-defence and anti-drone systems. Italy has developed a growing defence export sector in recent years, and the requests could intensify debate within Parliament about the country’s role as a supplier of military technology amid an expanding conflict.

Meloni’s Limited Role in Diplomatic Initiative

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has sought to balance alliance commitments with constitutional constraints. Italy has agreed to take part, as an observer, in a diplomatic initiative promoted by Donald Trump aimed at coordinating a response among allied nations.

The government has stated that constitutional provisions prevent Italy from joining such a forum as a full voting member without parliamentary approval. Opposition parties have criticized the decision as limiting Italy’s influence, while government supporters describe it as consistent with domestic legal requirements.

Expert Analysis

Speaking with InTrieste, Federico Donelli, Professor of International Relations at the University of Trieste, offered a measured but sobering assessment of the geopolitical and economic implications of the crisis.

According to professor Donelli, the European Union faces two immediate challenges.

The first is economic. Rising instability is likely to push oil prices higher, increasing costs not only for imported goods but also for products manufactured within Europe, adding further inflationary pressure.

The second concern is security. The crisis highlights the European Union’s need to strengthen its ability to respond independently to geopolitical threats, potentially accelerating debate over the future of European defense policy.

As for Iran, the professor does not foresee a collapse of the regime. While leadership changes have occurred, the country’s political system is structured to ensure continuity. Instead of systemic upheaval, he expects possible shifts within the ruling elite, with international actors watching closely for signs of a less confrontational leadership emerging.

Demonstrations in Milan

Public opinion has also surfaced in street demonstrations. Outside the United States Consulate in Milan, an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 people gathered on Monday evening in support of American policy. A separate protest opposing U.S. and Israeli military action was scheduled for the following evening, with several hundred participants expected.

Local authorities advised residents to avoid the immediate area during the rallies and to follow official updates. The back-to-back demonstrations reflect a divided public response to the unfolding crisis.

Domestic Strikes Add Pressure

The international tensions coincide with planned nationwide transport strikes in March 2026, called by labor unions over pay and working conditions. Rail and air travel disruptions could affect thousands of passengers, including those returning from abroad, adding logistical strain at a sensitive moment.

A Complex Outlook

The Middle East conflict arrives as Italy manages economic pressures and delicate relations within the European Union. The evacuation of citizens abroad represents the most immediate impact on ordinary Italians, but diplomatic positioning and defence considerations may carry longer-term implications.

The Foreign Ministry has urged Italians in affected regions to remain in close contact with consular authorities and to follow official guidance as the situation continues to evolve.

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