by Maximiliano Crocamo
Interviews: Nona Mikhelidze, research fellow at the Institute of International Affairs and a commentator on geopolitical issues for national newspapers; Federico Donelli, lecturer in International Relations at the University of Trieste.
As the war in Ukraine drags into another year with no clear resolution in sight, questions about its trajectory—and its implications for European security—are becoming increasingly urgent. Speaking at the University of Trieste on Thursday, 26 March, Nona Mikhelidze, head of research at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), offered a sobering assessment: a peaceful settlement remains unlikely in the near term.
The event, “War in Ukraine, Trump and the Future of European Security,” organized by Dialoghi Europei, brought together experts and the public to examine the current state of the conflict and its broader implications for the continent.
Mikhelidze argued that a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine remains unlikely in the near term. In her view, Vladimir Putin has yet to achieve the core objectives that prompted the invasion, which she described as fundamentally political in nature—aimed at securing greater control.
Ending the war now, she suggested, could pose a systemic risk to the Russian leadership. Putin, she noted, has increasingly come to depend on the conflict as a tool for maintaining domestic power, tying the continuation of the war not only to military considerations but also to internal political stability.
This perspective shifts the focus away from purely territorial or strategic calculations, placing the conflict within the broader framework of authoritarian consolidation. In this sense, the war is as much about preserving power at home as it is about achieving goals abroad.
Mikhelidze emphasized that her remarks reflect her personal expert analysis and do not represent an official position of the IAI.
